For the final time this season we welcome LFW punter Andy Hillman, and resident professional odds compiler Owen Goulding, for their input into the betting markets ahead of the QPR v Derby play-off final.

Andy Hillman

So after 48 long drawn out games, occasionally exciting, often tedious and dull, we come down to this, the £134,000,000 game. Winner takes literally all. And if you’re brave enough to bet on the match (I bet heavily on QPR to go down as a safety net during THAT Man City game...), here is everything you need to know about the big one from a betting and stats perspective to help you make the big decision. A word of caution, the stats don’t make for particularly good reading...

Bookmaker Offers:

Marquee games always attract betting promos, and this is no exception. PaddyPower will refund the usual markets (first goal scorer, correct market etc.) if it’s a draw at 90 minutes. If it goes to penalties BetVictor will refund practically everything as a free bet. BetFred are offering their usual double delight-hat trick heaven offer on the first goal scorer, but be warned that the odds are considerably lower than other bookies as a result (Charlie Austin 3/1 FGS @ BetFred, 5/1 @ PaddyPower...)

Match Odds:

The bookmakers naturally have Derby as favourites, at a best price of 16/11. QPR are the underdogs, with a best price of 27/11. The draw is available at 12/5. Remember, that match odds only count for 90 minutes — any result beyond that does not count as part of match odds. The simple ‘when it’s all said and done, who is going up...’ market has Derby at odds on, 4/5 to get promoted, with QPR are available at 11/10. The odds are considerably lower than the match odds market as it effectively removes the draw from the equation, and it doesn’t matter whether the winner comes from 90 minutes, 120 minutes or penalties.

Historical Playoff Stats:

Since the current playoff format was introduced in 1988/89, the team finishing third has been promoted the most often (nine times), whereas the team finishing fourth has been promoted the least often (four times). In fact, the last team to win promotion from fourth place was Charlton Athletic — in 97/98. Only twice previously has a team that’s been relegated form the Premier League gone straight back up via the playoffs — Leicester in 95/96, and West Ham in 11/12.

Form Guide:

Derby, as we all saw, thrashed Brighton in the playoffs, 6-2 on aggregate. Those two wins form part of a run of seven wins and a draw in their last eight games. QPR, never really in any danger of not making the playoffs, ambled through their final games without so much as a care in the world — winning four, drawing two and losing three of their games (including the play-offs...) You will all be delighted to know that away from Loftus Road QPR have lost seven of their last 11 games, however you can also take heart from the fact that Derby aren’t exactly amazing on the road themselves — four wins, four draws, three defeats in their last 11 away from Pride Park.

Season Stats:

Derby >>> goals scored 90 >>> goals conceded 54 >>> clean sheets 13 >>> failed to score 9.

QPR >>> goals scored 62 >>> goals conceded 45 >>> clean sheets 18 >>> failed to score 14

Key Stats:

Derby have scored at least two goals in seven of their last eight games. Since Steve McClaren took over, only Leicester have won more league games across the top four divisions of football. Both QPR and Derby have only kept one clean sheet each in their last nine games. The 15 players that QPR used vs Wigan had a total of 2088 Premier League Games between them as opposed Derby’s 113 Premier League appearances vs Brighton. Of the 15 players that QPR used vs Wigan, only Charlie Austin and Yun Suk-Young have not played in the Premier League. Take a moment to absorb that stat.

First Goal Scorer Odds:

There’s a school of thought that says that QPR may well have been promoted, or at least finished ahead of Derby, had Charlie Austin been fit for the entire season. The stats certainly back him up here — 20 goals in 36 appearances in all competitions, a goal every 0.55 games. If you extrapolate that across the season, you’re looking at a additional seven or eight goals for him. And just imagine where QPR could have been with Austin instead of Keane or god-forbid Mobido Maiga upfront. Austin is the favourite to open the scoring at a best price of 9/2. Derby’s chief goal-getter, Chris Martin (not the lead singer from Coldplay, but more a bustling Grant Holt with more talent) has 25 goals this season, and can be backed at 5/1. Interestingly, Craig Bryson, who got 16 goals from midfield for Derby, and won their Player of the Year award is available at 9/1 to open the scoring. He missed the semi-final second leg through injury, but should be fit for this one. QPR’s own goal scoring midfielder, Ravel Morrison, is also 9/1 to open the scoring.

Other Notable Markets:

Seeing as both teams have only kept a single clean sheet each in their last nine games respectively, the both teams to score market seems a touch high at 11/10. Following on from this, you can get Derby to win & BTTS @ 4/1, and QPR to win & BTTS at 5/1.

There’s an interesting market in the Man of the Match market where everyone is 9/1 or better. Goal scorers generally win the Man of the Match awards, and all four of the nominees listed above in the goal scorers market can be backed at that price. However, there have been countless occasions where the award has been given to the man as opposed to the performance — how often has ‘Stevie G or ‘JT’ won the Man Of the Match award ahead of someone more deserving? And who is the most famous person on the pitch this weekend? One Joey Barton. And what better way for Joey to complete his Rangers redemption than an all action display on the biggest stage (for him, anyway)? This game was made for him. The question is, is it going to be a Wigan at home, or a Man City away?

In the handicap markets — for those who think that Derby’s youthful exuberance will murder our Dad’s Army (you know who you are...) — Derby (-1) is available 19/4 — that’s practically 5/1.

In the score/win double markets, if you’re of the inclination that the only chance we have of winning is with Charlie Austin on the score sheet, you can get a QPR win / Charlie Austin to score anytime double at 4/1. The same bet with Chris Martin & Derby is 17/4.

Recommended Bets:

Both Teams to Score @ 11/10

Match Result @ 90 mins — Draw @ 12/5

Man of the Match — Joey Barton — 9/1

Previous winners:

Roma vs Bologna - Roma win to Nil @ 7/5 — 27/09/13

The Pro

So here it is. The season all boils down to this one game. It's been a funny old season - QPR have never really looked like much of a team till these play offs started. A solid away performance at the DW followed by an excellent night at Loftus Road where QPR played some lovely football after a decent start from a good Wigan side has seen the Hoops book their place for a first time appearance at 'New Wembley'.

Past trips to 'Old Wembley' haven't been particularly kind to the Super Hoop following and looking at this fixture, it's hard to see past the fact that a lot (if not all) of QPR's chances of promotion rest on the shoulders of undoubtedly the best striker in the division, Charlie Austin.

His performances in both legs of the semi-final epitomised everything that a fan would want in a player. Tireless work up front on his own in the away leg, chasing every ball down, trying to link up play whenever possible, coupled with his second leg performance where coolness personified existed whilst taking that pressure penalty, and the natural instinct for the winning goal means you've always got a chance when he's on the pitch. Breaking down his minutes to goals ratio for league encounters this season shows what a staggering proposition he is. A goal every 1.46 games is how it works out. When you compare that to Derby top scorer Chris Martin (who has scored more goals this season than Charlie) but has a league scoring record of a goal every 2.28 games, it only goes to emphasise the fact that QPR would probably be on their hols now preparing for the Premier League had Austin not suffered the injury woes he did.

But that's all moot. Its all about this one game now. Will free scoring youthful Derby have too much pace and power for an aged QPR side? Or will the Rangers team's undoubted wealth of experience in big games strangle the young Rams. It truly is an intriguing encounter.

From a betting point of view, Derby are slight favourites at 7/5, the draw is 9/4 and QPR are available at 11/5. Based on what I've seen this season, and the stats, I can't argue with this evaluation. Derby have been the better side over the season and McClaren deserves a lot of praise for the job he has done since departing Loftus Road. So I'm not interested in these prices.

Being such a big game, there is a wealth of betting opportunities - literally hundreds of ways of losing your money. But a price that is jumping out on me like a sore thumb is the first half goals market. Derby always start like a train and you know that McClaren will be asking the same of them here. I think this game may be more open than it may look on paper, the big Wembley pitch helping this. In Derby's last eight games, they have scored a staggering 12 goals in the first half and conceded four. With Charlie Austin in the QPR team, and Junior Hoilett getting better by the week, QPR will look to exploit any opening Derby leave it what is likely to be a blood and thunder start. With so much happening in the first half of Derby games recently, the goal scoring ability of Austin, the expansive Wembley pitch and the fact that more than one goal has been scored in the first half of two of the last four Championship play-off finals, I have to recommend having a bet on Over 1.5 First half goals at a whopping 11/4 with Corals.

Bet for the final: Derby v QPR - Over 1.5 1st Half Goals - 11/4 (Corals)

I just want to wish all the fans going an enjoyable day out and all the ones who cant be there for whatever reason, a viewing experience they hopefully will savour for a long time. Thanks to all you readers who help make this site what it is, for taking time to read my statistical ramblings and I hope you've made a few pounds off the back of them this season. Lastly, before I sign off for another season, I want to extend my gratitude and thanks to Clive, who without him, this site wouldn't exist. Many thanks Mr Whittingham for all your time and devotion to the cause. I truly hope you can relax enough to enjoy the occasion on Saturday (you've waited long enough!!) — it's well deserved!

Until next season then (in whatever league that will be!)......Happy Punting everyone!

Previous Winners:

Wigan v QPR first leg Draw - 23/10 (general)

Joey Barton to score at any time vs Middlesbrough 4/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfred, Skybet), 27/09/13

The Twitter @loftforwords, @andy_hillman

Pictures — Action Images

Photo: Action Images

isawqpratwcity added 12:50 - May 24 oi, betting's a scourge, but i appreciate your 'cash-down', tough evaluations. thank you both. but tbf, andy, joey didn't have 'city' moment all season.
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